Emma's blog

Engaging with politicians on climate change

To my surprise I discovered this week that as a resident you can talk for 5 minutes to your council on any matter within their responsibility. I made the argument against airport expansion partly by analysing the views of those commenting on the application via the council's planning siteIf you find the objections persuasive, please add your own on the council site from anywhere in the UK (or maybe even beyond?).

 

A talk to North Somerset Full Council 24th September 2019

"I speak as a local resident but also as a social scientist at the University of London specialising in the evaluation of development projects. In social terms the project I want to comment on – Bristol Airport expansion – is a relatively easy case to judge. I wanted to share my assessment.

The 2019 poll commissioned by the airport claims that the ‘silent majority’ in South West support the plans. However, this is misleading. Their proposition was: ‘Bristol Airport has submitted plans to increase its capacity from 10 million to 12 million passengers a year.’ And they go on to say they only plan to improve existing facilities not build more. 17% strongly supported, 54% tended to support. But supported what? This is spin. 10 million passengers sounds as if it is the current level – actually it was 8.6 million last year and their longer-term plan is to go even higher than 12m. The ‘expansion’ sounds as if it is all about improvements, downplaying the huge increase in flights with all its attendant problems. This was not an informative poll – I don’t blame them, it is company press officer’s job is to spin. But from a detached viewpoint, it is a bit like the airport saying it will be carbon neutral by 2025 and leaving the planes and cars out of the calculation. 

It is far more telling that an amenity that should be popular with people in the region had 3496 objectors and 1786 supporters only on your site by 24thSeptember. Plus, 1000s more have signed various petitions and attended meetings to express their objections in other ways since December 2018 - explained in detail on the Stop Bristol Airport Expansion website. And our MP Dr Liam Fox believes that the expansion is inappropriate unless there is major investment in infrastructure first.

Looking at supporters on your site: – bearing in mind that much support appeared just after the airport emailed passengers and suppliers to encourage them to express approval, we can assume they are mostly customers. It was pointed out by someone on your site that the airport gave the impression it was a survey rather than a response to a planning application. A large number of these supporters suggested improvements, as if they thought they were writing to the airport rather than the council. Most gave no reason for support; some mention jobs but with no details. Many caveated their support, writing that they would only support development if there is cheaper car parking and a massive investment made in transport links first– before the airport expands. 

Looking at the objections: – their answers are more varied and informative than supporters and can be summarised as follows: the airport is hoping to expand in the wrong place, at the wrong time and – bearing in mind the profits will go to Canada – for the wrong reasons. They mostly come from the South West area, including a huge number from Bristol, and mention various problems all connected to people’s well-being:

  • Noise pollution (especially at night)
  • Air pollution and other health impacts (including on children – note the Supreme Court’s ruling on 6thJune 2019 that councils can be held liable for failing to protect children)
  • Effect on local ecology
  • Illegal car parking and other harm to the greenbelt and to an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty
  • Extra traffic, accidents and chronic congestion (especially on narrow roads) partly due to absence of rail and motorway links
  • Economic benefits mostly go to Canada and risky as government policy could change on airports 

and above all

  • Climate emergency

As you know, since April 2019 North Somerset residents’ increased knowledge about the climate crisis has led to many, including young people, expressing their dissent with passion. They cite a wide range of reports including one by the New Economic Foundation. One resident on the N Somerset site wrote: “Ask yourselves: which side of history do I want to be on?” 

In my research I study politicians in Westminster. So I realise that the representation of North Somerset must often involve an impossible weighing up of diverse and conflicting needs and interests of constituents, but in this case it seems to me that the evidence of harm without benefit is overwhelmingly against expansion."

Brexit - some notes for historians

Last night the government lost its majority and control of parliament. Today we had yet another unprecedented day of drama. As I sat watching the debate from the public gallery yesterday, I kept thinking “who is lying and why?” I used to wonder a similar question but with different assumptions, “what is that MP trying to achieve and for whom?”

Historians of the future trying to explain what happened in the years after people voted to leave the EU will need to become procedural and constitutional experts. Most of those commenting on what is going on currently have to endlessly explain the rules of the game – how parliament can be prorogued, how quickly laws can be made and how to use standing orders to do what you want – and they do so brilliantly (see Ruth Fox of the Hansard Society, Hannah White of Institute of Government, Anand Menon at Kings College and Meg Russell at the Constitution Unit, UCL as well as many Commons’ parliamentary clerks/library researchers). Many of them are members of the Study of Parliament Group, so follow SPG on twitter and you'll find a procedural treasure trove.

But if asking why Brexit drove us into a political frenzy, then you need to look further back. I’d suggest studying four trends in the relationship between politicians and people that have been emerging in the last 50 years:

  1. Rebellion: MPs have been getting less inclined to obey their party leaders over the last 50 years. Why? As deference declines, MPs’ relationship with constituents gets closer, and digital media reveal the inevitable inconsistencies, contradictions and disingenuity of politicians, so backbenchers are more and more prepared to defy their leaders and their disciplinarians, i.e., the whips (see the work of Phil Cowley). In our current situation, threatening to remove 'the whip' and deselect MPs sounds old school and out of sync with the way parties have been run for 20 years. Everyone knows that Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the main opposition party, was the second most rebellious MP when his party was governing 1997-2010. This increase in rebellion, plus various reputation-saving measures to give backbench MPs more power after the expenses scandal, and a government with no majority translates into a weak PM.
  2. Austerity and inequality are more controversial causes: arguably the massive cuts since 2010 have infuriated huge swathes of our population. We became accustomed to the idea that the state had various responsibilities, only to find that our assumptions crumbled under other imperatives. Claims on the state increased with the ageing population and the failure to grapple with the complex needs (for mental and physical health and social care, chronic inequalities, action on climate change etc); more people coming into the UK was perceived as a further pressure on services. Our expectations of a more egalitarian society were undermined by the continuing dominance of white private-school educated men in government. People want to leave the EU for different reasons, but some argue that for these privileged white men, taking control back from Europe (the slogan of the leave campaign) means the freedom to further shrink the state.
  3. The digital revolution has contributed to the mix by helping leavers win the referendum in the first place. Plus, since 2016 various social apps have enabled backbenchers to organise rebellion against the main parties. And digital communication – leaking, insulting, arguing on social media – rachets up the pace and intensity of fury and distrust, so that the hostility between politicians (and others) is attaining new heights from which people seem to be struggling to climb down. (My new project is about political communication in six parliaments so I’d encourage a look at the work of the Global Research Network on Parliaments and People to see what we come up with in the coming years).
  4. Constitutional changes: it is in this area that we can see most clearly how small changes can change a party, a parliament, a country, their neighbours and even the world: -
  • I mentioned that backbenchers were given more clout. In 2010 Select Committee Chairs and members were elected not selected by the whips and backbenchers were given control of time each week to hold debates. Aside from giving the impression that backbenchers should step up the intensity of their scrutiny of parliament, this meant that backbenchers across parties formed new more meaningful and effective alliances. You might argue these reforms were provoked by the expenses scandal and that wouldn't have happened but for the well-intentioned actions of an honourable MP introducing a new rule demanding receipts for expenses (see my new book on expenses.)
  • Devolving power to the three nations of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, without nurturing the relationships between our four parts of the UK, has created struggles and tensions. Arguably this is meant that an English-dominated UK government (and the main Opposition party) have both been weakened by their failure to recognise and work with the decision-makers in the other nations.
  • Then in 2012 Eric Joyce headbutted a Tory MP in Strangers’ Bar, leading to his resignation and the Labour leader Ed Miliband to change the rules for leadership elections (from an electoral college to one-member-one-vote and to make membership possible for only a few pounds). These changes in the rules led to the election of Jeremy Corbyn a life-long Eurosceptic as Leader. His election lurched the leadership of the opposition to the left, while the majority of MPs stayed in the centre, possibly provoking an equivalent reaction among the Tories.

It was the journalist Jim Waterson who argued recently in a radio series about the political butterfly effect that Brexit was caused by Eric Joyce’s headbutt on 22 February 2012. Others will see the critical relationship breakdowns, ruptures and hinges at different critical moments. 

History is not an even current and what can appear as if they are small events can provoke hugely significant change. Politicians would be wise to get better at anticipating the future without pretending that they can predict or control it. The challenge for historians will be how to take account of the millions of different views in Westminster, the four nations of the UK, and the 28 countries of the EU in identifying the critical characters, moments and processes and how they inter-relate through the Brexit drama. It is reassuring that this story will not be controlled by one scholar but thousands of experts  because the way we tell this history will have its own impact on the relationship between parliament and the people.

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